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BackFollowing the experiences in the wake of the financial and economic crisis, statistics are currently very popular with politicians: with Commission President José Manuel Barroso, Commissioner Janez Potočnik and Commissioner Olli Rehn attending, three Commission members spoke at the event organised by the Statistical office of the European Union, Eurostat, on the subject of “Statistics for policymaking”. The statistics discussion is of explosive nature, in particular now, as the course has to be set with regard to on which statistics and indicators the major key topics EU 2020 strategy and Economic Governance should be based on.
In his opening address, Commission President Barroso underlined the important role played by the Statistical office of the European Union Eurostat. The crisis had made it possible to strengthen Eurostat. Many problems could have been avoided had Eurostat been accordingly strengthened and supported earlier. Both EU 2020 strategy and Economic Governance had made high quality statistics even more important. Commissioner Potočnik added that Eurostat would play an important role in supplying data as basis for policy decisions.
The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders emphasised that is was vital to find suitable measures to address structural challenges such as demographic change or scarcity of resources. Aspects of income distribution also had to be given greater consideration. Political decision-making required high quality statistics. Mihály Varga, a representative of the Hungarian Presidency criticised that the statisticians had not been able to warn politicians about the developments. What was needed now were innovative solutions. Apart from that, statisticians should be protected against the influence of politics.
The representative of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs Berthold Leeftink criticised that many statistics would be rather meaningless. Before the crisis for example, Spain and Ireland had very low public debt; however, these figures had not produced a forecast. New indicators must be created, said Leeftink. He welcomed the idea of using unit labour costs as an indicator, but was immediately rebuked by a representative of the European Trade Union Institute, who asked him whether the Netherlands intended to orientate its unit labour costs on Bulgaria. These only amount to a quarter of the Dutch level.
Noticeable was the contribution of Pier Carlo Padoan, Deputy Secretary-General of the OECD: according to him, there were sufficient indicators; however, sometimes there were underestimated and in some cases not understood at all. What would be missing in particular was a statistical basis on the social consequences of the crisis. For example, the crisis had a particular impact on young people, and there is also the need of more research on poverty and the trust of the population. There were more than enough statistics concerning the industrial sector or production, but only very few on the well-being of the population, said Padoan.
John Landefeld of the US Department of Commerce criticised the available US statistics. There was a lot of data available in the USA; however, according to him many important statistics were missing. The property crisis could have been foreseen. This was demonstrated by the house price-to-income ratio and the debt-to-income ratio, both of which had sharply risen over a period of only a few years. Income distribution would clearly show that there was an imbalance: whilst the US GDP had on average increased by 2.4 % between 2000 and 2007, the median income of US households had only risen by 1.2 %. Financial data on Credit Default Swaps, hedge funds and the like was sometimes completely lacking, said Landefeld.
Many other speakers underlined the correlation between politics and statistics. One speaker commented that politicians should have at least a basic knowledge of statistics; another thought that politicians wanted simple messages. The quality of statistics had to be high; data had to be available faster. It was important that one could trust in statistics.
Finally, the General Director of Eurostat, Walter Radermacher informed the audience that the Eurostat homepage already had its own link on “Europe 2020 indicators”. In general, he demanded precise data and that one should also look at primary sources. Confidence in statistics was of vital importance. That is why he also requested more transparency: not only data should be published but also the design of the indicators should be depicted. Referring to the issue of costs for preparing indicators and statistics, he demanded more efficiency, which would help saving costs.
Commissioner Rehn emphasised in his final statement that reliable and correct statistics were necessary. This would form the basis for Economic Governance and the EU 2020 strategy, said the economic commissioner.
It remains to be seen whether politics and statistical offices will now increase its focus on wealth indicators and on so far neglected financial market data, as demanded by some speakers. There is some reason for hope, given the six priorities of the EU 2020 strategy and the link provided by Eurostat for relevant EU 2020 indicators. However, cause for concern give the statements of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other politicians, who regard unit labour costs as the be-all and end-all.
Further information:
Programme and presentations on Eurostat Conference
Europa 2020 Indicators von Eurostat
The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders emphasised that is was vital to find suitable measures to address structural challenges such as demographic change or scarcity of resources. Aspects of income distribution also had to be given greater consideration. Political decision-making required high quality statistics. Mihály Varga, a representative of the Hungarian Presidency criticised that the statisticians had not been able to warn politicians about the developments. What was needed now were innovative solutions. Apart from that, statisticians should be protected against the influence of politics.
The representative of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs Berthold Leeftink criticised that many statistics would be rather meaningless. Before the crisis for example, Spain and Ireland had very low public debt; however, these figures had not produced a forecast. New indicators must be created, said Leeftink. He welcomed the idea of using unit labour costs as an indicator, but was immediately rebuked by a representative of the European Trade Union Institute, who asked him whether the Netherlands intended to orientate its unit labour costs on Bulgaria. These only amount to a quarter of the Dutch level.
Noticeable was the contribution of Pier Carlo Padoan, Deputy Secretary-General of the OECD: according to him, there were sufficient indicators; however, sometimes there were underestimated and in some cases not understood at all. What would be missing in particular was a statistical basis on the social consequences of the crisis. For example, the crisis had a particular impact on young people, and there is also the need of more research on poverty and the trust of the population. There were more than enough statistics concerning the industrial sector or production, but only very few on the well-being of the population, said Padoan.
John Landefeld of the US Department of Commerce criticised the available US statistics. There was a lot of data available in the USA; however, according to him many important statistics were missing. The property crisis could have been foreseen. This was demonstrated by the house price-to-income ratio and the debt-to-income ratio, both of which had sharply risen over a period of only a few years. Income distribution would clearly show that there was an imbalance: whilst the US GDP had on average increased by 2.4 % between 2000 and 2007, the median income of US households had only risen by 1.2 %. Financial data on Credit Default Swaps, hedge funds and the like was sometimes completely lacking, said Landefeld.
Many other speakers underlined the correlation between politics and statistics. One speaker commented that politicians should have at least a basic knowledge of statistics; another thought that politicians wanted simple messages. The quality of statistics had to be high; data had to be available faster. It was important that one could trust in statistics.
Finally, the General Director of Eurostat, Walter Radermacher informed the audience that the Eurostat homepage already had its own link on “Europe 2020 indicators”. In general, he demanded precise data and that one should also look at primary sources. Confidence in statistics was of vital importance. That is why he also requested more transparency: not only data should be published but also the design of the indicators should be depicted. Referring to the issue of costs for preparing indicators and statistics, he demanded more efficiency, which would help saving costs.
Commissioner Rehn emphasised in his final statement that reliable and correct statistics were necessary. This would form the basis for Economic Governance and the EU 2020 strategy, said the economic commissioner.
It remains to be seen whether politics and statistical offices will now increase its focus on wealth indicators and on so far neglected financial market data, as demanded by some speakers. There is some reason for hope, given the six priorities of the EU 2020 strategy and the link provided by Eurostat for relevant EU 2020 indicators. However, cause for concern give the statements of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other politicians, who regard unit labour costs as the be-all and end-all.
Further information:
Programme and presentations on Eurostat Conference
Europa 2020 Indicators von Eurostat