While Brussels, like most regions of Europe, was hit by a massive heatwave, things were also heating up in the main building of the EU Commission at the beginning of the week. Until the very end, the EU’s supreme policymakers wrangled over a proposal that, despite broad public support, is unlikely to find much favour in the political arena at present: While a recent Eurobarometer survey shows that more than 80 per cent of respondents support the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 and almost two-fifths already feel personally exposed to climate-related risks, there has been little support from political decision-makers for overly ambitious new interim targets.

A complicated process of reaching a majority in the run-up

In fact, in recent months, only six Member States have explicitly supported the 2040 target proposed by the last EU Commission in a communication in February 2024: These are Denmark, which has just taken over the Council Presidency, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Spain, which is the only relatively populous country among them. Together, they represent less than a fifth of the EU population. Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic opposed the 90 per cent target. According to reports, Poland's opposition as the previous Council Presidency was also the reason why the publication of the draft regulation presented now was delayed for so long. The political heavyweights Germany and France signalled their willingness to essentially support the target, provided that the EU Commission offers them flexibility instruments. However, French President Emmanuel Macron caught everyone's attention at the European Council meeting at the end of June when he argued in favour of focusing on the 2035 interim target first.

The long road to the new regulation

With the European Climate Law that came into force in July 2021, the EU has committed itself to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 and reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 per cent compared to 1990 levels by 2030. The measures for achieving the interim target by 2030 were specified in the Fit for 55 legislative package, the largest EU climate package to date. A review of the national energy and climate plans (NECPs), published at the end of May, shows that the Member States are on track. However, in line with the European Climate Law, the EU Commission presented a target recommendation for 2040 already in February 2024, following the first global stocktake in December 2023 as part of COP28 in Dubai. The aim was to set out a concrete path towards climate neutrality by 2050. The 90 per cent reduction proposed at the beginning of 2024 was based on a detailed impact assessment and was at the lower end of the 90 to 95 per cent range recommended by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.

Flexible ambitions. Europe is committed to international cooperation

Contrary to the recent recommendation of this expert panel, the current proposal has responded to calls for greater flexibility. As the EU Commission emphasises in its press release, the adoption followed intensive discussions with Member States, the EU Parliament and other stakeholders. At the heart of the proposed flexibility instruments are high-quality international emission credits under Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement. These are to be used from 2036 onwards to the extent of up to three percentage points of the planned total reduction, but will not be tradable in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). In addition, permanent CO2 removals are to be integrated into the ETS in future and Member States are to be given greater flexibility in achieving their targets in different sectors. In view of the current backlash facing the European Green Deal policies, Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President of the EU Commission, emphasised that the proposed flexibilities are primarily intended to serve as a safety net and ensure that the fundamental commitment to climate protection remains unchanged.

Trade unions and climate movement see crucial gaps

From a trade union perspective, ambitious climate targets remain of central importance. ETUC General Secretary Esther Lynch emphasises that at “a time when an increasing number of people are dying due to working in extreme heat, getting serious about tackling climate change should absolutely be a priority for the EU.” At the same time, however, the crisis in European industry must not be ignored. In view of the high job losses, it must be ensured that ambitious climate policy goals are achieved not through deindustrialisation, but through a genuinly just transition to a green economy. This requires, not least, a binding European Directive for Just Transition (JTD), the support of decarbonisation and reindustrialisation financed by common debt, and clear social conditionality tied to all public funding.

Chiara Martinelli, Director of Climate Action Network Europe, problematises not only the insufficient level of ambition from a scientific point of view, but also the fairness aspects of the current proposal. She argues that Europe, which is historically one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, is now trying to buy its way out of responsibility and shift the burden to poorer countries. AK also supports the fact that the EU has set itself particularly ambitious climate targets in international accord. When implementing such targets, the primary consideration should be the impact on people. The coming months will show how European legislators ultimately position themselves on the proposal.

Further information:
EU Commission: The EU Climate Law offers a new path to 2040
AK EUROPA: 2040 climate target - EU Commission recommends 90 percent reduction in emissions
AK EUROPA: ETS II and Social Climate Plans. Where do we stand?
AK EUROPA: “Fit for 55” – Europe’s path towards climate neutrality
AK EUROPA: EU 2040 Climate target - focusing on the social dimension
European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change: Staying the course on climate action essential to EU security and competitiveness
ETUC: Decarbonisation must not become deindustrialisation, unions warn
CAN Europe: EU’s 2040 Climate Target - A pivotal step for climate action comes at a costly compromise